I'm beginning to feel that we're on the cusp of something new with music. No, the music itself will ebb and flow stylistically as it has before but the means of distribution and awareness of new music will change. It's starting to happen now with Radiohead distributing their latest album for free and asking fans to pay what they think it's worth and Trent Reznor of Nine Inch Nails encouraging new means of distribution. Apple has exposed unheard of artists through its Tuesday weekly free music on iTunes (a friend of mine on average buys an album a month based on hearing new artists this way). There's no denying the popularity of MySpace for music (though I personally don't care for the jumbled appearance).
At the same time we have the RIAA who seems to be looking for more and more ways to protect its interests and continue to maintain its profits. The members are desperately scrambling to find ways to make money now that it's nearly impossible to get away with selling an entire album for the sake of one or two songs that the consumers want. This means to sell a complete album you either have someone who really likes the band, all the songs need to be good, or you sell the entire album at a price that warrants buying the entire album instead of the 2 or 3 songs that someone might normally buy. The RIAA is incredibly aggressive about pursuing those who have illegally obtained or distribute music to the point that their lawsuits are being challenged because of the astronomical amount per pirated song.
So, what does all this mean? I think we're going to find emerging Web 2.0 applications and enhancements to Amazon's MP3 store and iTunes to make it easier to find new artists. There will be better self-promotion. Big artists could recommend upcoming artists for songs they should download at reduced cost or free samples. There's going to be a lot of neat new stuff going on in the next few years. And frankly, it won't break my heart to see the RIAA members have to re-tool to remain profitable and to compete.
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